Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 0.053016 0.060413 0.068081 0.076593 0.085748 0.095269 0.105893
2025-04-06 0.042105 0.053083 0.065149 0.079252 0.095143 0.112366 0.132315
2025-04-13 0.033283 0.046072 0.060883 0.078960 0.100102 0.123748 0.151898
2025-04-20 0.029803 0.044422 0.062048 0.084254 0.110912 0.141370 0.178295
2025-04-27 0.024057 0.039069 0.058004 0.082690 0.113142 0.148696 0.192580
2025-05-04 0.021239 0.037034 0.057697 0.085355 0.120180 0.161487 0.213132
2025-05-11 0.017722 0.033539 0.055093 0.084781 0.122971 0.169011 0.227328
2025-05-18 0.015836 0.032093 0.054998 0.087260 0.129448 0.180931 0.246771
2025-05-25 0.014037 0.030522 0.054535 0.089106 0.135021 0.191696 0.264823
2025-06-01 0.011396 0.027241 0.051352 0.087029 0.135330 0.195780 0.274609
2025-06-08 0.009186 0.024312 0.048393 0.085014 0.135524 0.199572 0.283932
2025-06-15 0.008364 0.023691 0.048817 0.087686 0.141911 0.211217 0.303045
2025-06-22 0.007314 0.022594 0.048570 0.089593 0.147601 0.222433 0.322270
2025-06-29 0.006638 0.022139 0.049325 0.093006 0.155458 0.236630 0.345527
2025-07-06 0.005415 0.020319 0.047701 0.092799 0.158291 0.244306 0.360585
2025-07-13 0.005305 0.020907 0.050113 0.098683 0.169643 0.263213 0.390072
2025-07-20 0.004111 0.018734 0.047616 0.096961 0.170248 0.267934 0.401410
2025-07-27 0.003685 0.018330 0.048164 0.099909 0.177454 0.281422 0.424072
2025-08-03 0.002908 0.016780 0.046497 0.099275 0.179476 0.287967 0.437770
2025-08-10 0.002581 0.016405 0.046961 0.102013 0.186360 0.301062 0.460025
2025-08-17 0.002228 0.015843 0.047012 0.104049 0.192216 0.312783 0.480532
2025-08-24 0.001593 0.014069 0.044511 0.101757 0.191608 0.315649 0.489376
2025-08-31 0.001097 0.012460 0.042143 0.099532 0.190983 0.318414 0.498036